WEST BENGAL, ODISHA BRACE FOR SUPER CYCLONE AMPHAN

West Bengal and Odisha are bracing for Amphan, now upgraded to only the

second super cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in two decades, which is

expected to make landfall along Digha in West Bengal by Wednesday evening.

On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a high-level meeting to

review preparations, including the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF)'s

evacuation plan.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, who addressed a Facebook live

session Monday, said that Amphan was moving at a speed of 220-230 km/hr as

on Monday evening. "The wind speed. when it hits land would be 165-175

km/hr, gusting to up to 195 km/hr. Districts in West Bengal, including East

and West Medinipur, South and North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata

would be affected severely. We expect tidal waves as high as 4 to 6 metres,

as tall as a two-storeyed building."

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected in the coastal Odisha districts of

Jagatsinghpur, Balasore, Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Mayurbhanj on Tuesday,

Mohapatra added.

The West Bengal government has started evacuating people from coastal areas

to cyclone centres. "Instructions have been given to officials in this

regard," Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said.

In Odisha, Special Relief Commissioner P K Jena said the district collectors

of Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore,

Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Cuttack, Khurda and Nayagarh have been asked to prepare

for evacuation if necessary. Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has directed

officials to prepare a plan.

The IMD chief said the storm "intensified very rapidly during the 24 hours

between the evening of May 17 and May 18. Though there have been two or

three super cyclones in the past, Amphan is only the second after the Odisha

super cyclone of 1999 to form in the North Indian Ocean."

COVID-19 CASES IN INDIA EXCEED 100,000, BUT LOW FATALITY RATIO OFFERS HOPE

The number of known coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases in India crossed

100,000 on Monday, two-and-a-half months after the outbreak began taking

hold in the country, which then went into an unprecedented lockdown that

slowed the outbreak to a significant extent.

The milestone was a grim reminder of the challenge India, which has the

second highest population in the world, faces as it rolls back some of the

curbs in place since March 25 to allow economic activity to resume.

In the 78 days since the outbreak began, total infections were at 100,311

and 3,081people succumbed to the disease till Monday, but the trend

indicates the situation may be less serious than the global scenario, where

the proportion of deaths is double what has been seen in the country on an

average.

"We have successfully managed to delay the peaking of the curve by imposing

lockdown and other public health measures in a timely manner. There are

several mathematical models which are predicting the course of the pandemic

in India, but till now, we have managed to avoid the dramatically high

numbers that several models predicted," said Union Health minister Harsh

Vardhan.

Based on data reported till Monday evening, India's case fatality rate stood

at 3.07%. Across the world, where 4.8 million infections have led to at

least 317,000 deaths, the fatality rate is at 6.57%. In United States, the

country now hardest hit, the fatality stood at 6%. For China, where the

virus first began spreading, the figure is 5.56%,

NEW LAC FLASHPOINT WON'T BE ANOTHER DOKLAM: CHINESE DAILY

An influential Chinese newspaper on Monday indicated the opening of another

flashpoint on the Sino-India border but played down the possibility of

serious tensions as had happened at Doklam in 2017

Global Times, that advocates a hardheaded foreign policy approach, quoted

unnamed military sources as saying that Chinese border defence troops have

made necessary moves in response to "India's recent, illegal construction of

defence facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan

Valley region (in Ladakh)."

The media outlet put its own spin for discounting the build-up of tensions

in a sector that was last in the news during the 1962 conflict. "India is

merely seeking to divert its domestic attention due to unsuccessful handling

of Covid pandemic, and China has a military advantage there. So, the Indian

military won't escalate the incident," it said quoting Chinese analysts.

The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has not commented on this flare-up

but it reacted to troop face-offs last week in two sectors by expressing

confidence in the ability of the existing mechanisms to resolve the issue.

The MEA also suggested that the face-offs were not part of a grand strategy

by explaining that they occasionally occur due to difference in perception

of the alignment of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). "Situations have

arisen on the ground that could have been avoided if we had a common

perception of the LAC," MEA spokesperson Anurag Shrivastav had then said.

The spokesperson also noted that the India-China border has largely been

peaceful because PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping have "directed

their militaries to earnestly implement various confidence building measures

agreed upon between the two sides".

COVID-19 DASHBOARD - (Nos. IN INDIA / Nos. WORLDWIDE)

(Indian data from covid19india / and World Data from

worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )

Total Cases 1,00,322 (+4,630) / 48,91,330 (+89,455)

Total Deaths 3,156 (+131) / 3,20,134 (+3,463)

Total Recovered 39,233 (+2,438) / 19,07,422 (+49,252)

Active Cases 57,933 (+2,061) / 26,63,774 (+36,740)

Serious / Critical Cases (Not Available) / 44,767 (-54)

Top impacted nations so far: (And some of India's Neighbours)

Country / Total Cases / Deaths / Total Deaths per 1M Pop.

1 USA 15,50,294 / 91,981 / 278

2 Russia 2,90,678 / 2,722 / 19

3 Spain 2,78,188 / 27,709 / 593

4 Brazil 2,55,368 / 16,853 / 79

5 UK 2,46,406 / 34,796 / 513

6 Italy 2,25,886 / 32,007 / 529

7 France 1,79,927 / 28,239 / 433

8 Germany 1,77,289 / 8,123 /

97

9 Turkey 1,50,593 / 4,171 / 50

10 Iran 1,22,492 / 7,057 / 84

11 India 1,00,328 / 3,156 / 2.3

20 Pakistan 42,125 / 903 / 4.3

30 Bangladesh 23,870 / 349 / 2.2

103 Sri Lanka 992 / 9 /

0.4

Top 17 impacted Indian States so far: (Total No. of Confirmed case / No. Of

Deaths)

State / Confirmed Cases / Active Case / Recovered /

Deceased

Maharashtra 35,058 / 25,372 / 8,437 /

1,249

Tamil Nadu 11,760 / 7,272 / 4,406 /

82

Gujarat 11,746 / 6,248 / 4,804 / 694

Delhi 10,054 / 5,409 / 4,485 / 160

Rajasthan 5,507 / 2,151 / 3,218 /

138

Madhya Pradesh 5,236 / 2,549 / 2,435

/ 252

Uttar Pradesh 4,605 / 1,704 / 2,783 /

118

West Bengal 2,825 / 1,575 / 1,006 /

244

Andhra Pradesh 2,432 / 830 / 1,552

/ 50

Punjab 1,980 / 396 / 1,547 / 37

Telangana 1,592 / 556 / 1,002 /

34

Bihar 1,423 / 941 / 473 / 9

Jammu and Kashmir 1,289 / 665 / 609 /

15

Karnataka 1,246 / 678 / 530 /

37

Haryana 928 / 316 / 598 /

14

Odisha 876 / 595 / 277 / 4

Kerala 631 / 130 / 497 / 0

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

======================

CHINA AGREES TO PROBE, BUT ONLY AFTER 'ONLY AFTER THE PANDEMIC IS OVER'

India on Monday joined nearly 120 countries at a crucial conference of the

World Health Organisation in pushing for an impartial and comprehensive

evaluation of the global response into the coronavirus crisis as well as to

examine the origin of the deadly infection.

The two-day 73rd session of the World Health Assembly (WHA) of the WHO began

in Geneva amid growing calls, including by US President Donald Trump, to

investigate how the virus originated in China's Wuhan city and subsequent

action by Beijing.

A draft resolution pushed by the 27-nation European Union and supported by a

large number of countries for deliberations at the WHA called for a

step-wise process of impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation of

the WHO-coordinated international response to COVID-19.

The resolution sought scientific and collaborative field missions to trace

the origin of the coronavirus, saying such an exercise will enable targeted

interventions and a research agenda to reduce the risk of similar events in

future.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus defended the WHO's response, saying

"alarms were sounded early and often". He, however, welcomed the call for an

independent probe into the response to the pandemic saying learning was

important.

The WHO chief's remarks followed an address by Chinese President Xi Jinping

who backed the review of global health response to Covid-19, but said such

an evaluation should happen only after the pandemic was over. Under fire for

late notification of the disease, Jinping said China acted with "openness

and responsibility".

MODERNA CORONAVIRUS VACCINE TRIAL SHOWS PROMISING EARLY RESULTS

The first coronavirus vaccine to be tested in people appears to be safe and

able to stimulate an immune response against the infection, the

manufacturer, Moderna, announced on Monday, offering a glint of hope to a

world desperate for ways to stop the pandemic.

The preliminary findings, in the first eight people who each received two

doses of the experimental vaccine, must now be repeated in far larger tests

in hundreds and then thousands of people, to find out if the vaccine can

work in the real world. Moderna's technology, involving genetic material

from the virus called mRNA, is relatively new and has yet to produce any

approved vaccine.

The promising early news sent Moderna's stock soaring by more than 25

percent on Monday afternoon and helped drive Wall Street to its best day in

six weeks.

CORONAVIRUS: TRUMP TAKING UNPROVEN DRUG HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE

US President Donald Trump has said he is taking hydroxychloroquine to ward

off coronavirus, even though health officials have warned it may be unsafe.

Speaking at the White House, he told reporters he started taking the malaria

and lupus medication recently. "I'm taking it for about a week and a half

now and I'm still here, I'm still here," was his surprise announcement.

There is no evidence hydroxychloroquine can fight off coronavirus, though

clinical trials are under way.

THE REST

========

DELHI LOCKDOWN 4.0 GUIDELINES

While the Centre on Sunday evening came out with guidelines with respect to

Lockdown 4.0 that came into effect from Monday, the states started coming

out with their respective guidelines yesterday. While the states cannot

dilute the Centre's guidelines, they can have stricter curbs than mandated

by the Centre.

Nearly two months after a sweeping lockdown brought Delhi to a grinding

halt, the city is set to reopen, with the local administration lifting curbs

on markets, public transport, offices and construction activities.

All shops in markets and shopping complexes have been allowed to open. In

case of shops selling non-essential items, the odd-even policy will be

followed, meaning that on a given day, half the shops in a neighbourhood

market will function. However, there will be no such restrictions on shops

selling essential items, such as kirana stores.

Government and private offices can also open with full staff strength.

However, Kejriwal urged private business owners to encourage work from home

for their employees.

Cab aggregators and autos can restart services. However, not more than two

passengers will be allowed in the cabs and autos. e-rickshaws and cycle

rickshaws can operate with maximum one passenger each. People can also take

out their private cars, with maximum two passengers. Pillion riding will not

be allowed on two-wheelers.

While buses will start operating with a maximum of 20 passengers, Metro

services will remain suspended, at least till May 31, when the current phase

of the lockdown ends. All public transport facilities will have to be

disinfected extensively at regular intervals, Kejriwal said.

Restaurants can provide only home delivery or takeaway. Dining facility will

remain suspended. Bars and pubs will also remain shut.

Barber shops, spas and salons will have to remain closed, Kejriwal said.

Shopping malls in the city will remain closed. Schools, colleges, other

educational institutes, cinema halls, auditoriums, places of worship,

swimming pools cannot open either.

Stadiums and sports complexes will be allowed to reopen, but will remain out

of bounds for spectators.

Social, political, religious gatherings won't be allowed either. However,

marriages and funerals can be held with maximum 50 and 20 guests

respectively.

In containment zones, all kinds of activities will remain suspended.

Non-essential activities will not be allowed during the 7 pm to 7 am period,

which means markets will have to down shutters by evening. Office goers are

expected to reach home by 7 pm.

UP ACCEPTS CONG OFFER TO DEPLOY 1,000 BUSES FOR MIGRANTS

After two days, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has accepted Congress General

Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's offer of 1,000 buses to ferry migrants

from Noida and Ghaziabad back to UP.

Referring to Priyanka Gandhi's May 16 letter, Additional Chief Secretary

Awanish Awasthi addressed his reply to her private secretary accepting the

offer and requesting a list of the names and contact details of the drivers

and conductors of the buses.

After dragging its feet for two days, UP Government clearly decided to give

permission after adverse media reports of the mammoth crowds of migrants

turning up at Ghaziabad to get themselves registered to return home in UP.

On May 16, the day when 25 migrants had died in a road accident in Aurraiya,

Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had written a letter to CM

Yogi offering that her party will bear the cost of 1,000 buses to bring back

migrants to UP.

After the UP Government accepted her offer, she thanked it in a tweet.

MIGRANTS BACK IN BIHAR SHOW HIGH POSITIVITY

Testing of migrant workers returning to Bihar is underlining the twin

challenge that public health experts have warned about - the virus is being

carried in and many of the carriers are asymptomatic.

Until May 18, Bihar tested a total of 8,337 samples of migrant workers and

about 8% were found to be Covid-positive - double the national average

positivity rate which is about 4%.

Of the 835 samples taken from migrant workers who returned from Delhi, as

many as 218 were Covid positive. This works out to a positivity rate of over

26%, while the rate in the national capital is about 7%.

The data emerging from Bihar is not only crucial for the state's containment

strategy, but also for the national capital. First, it indicates the

presence of a large asymptomatic population in Delhi. Second, it can guide

the public health authorities in the national capital to carry out contact

tracing of these migrants, and contain the spread in areas that may have

gone unnoticed.

Migrants returning to Bihar from other states reported a positivity rate

similar to that state's figure.

ENTIRE OFFICE BUILDING NEEDN'T BE CLOSED IF 1 OR 2 CASES ARE REPORTED

The entire office building need not be closed if one or two cases of

COVID-19 are reported there and work can resume after it is disinfected as

per protocol, the Union health ministry said on Monday.

However, if there is a larger outbreak, the entire building will have to be

closed for 48 hours. All staff will work from home till the building is

adequately disinfected and is declared fit for re-occupation, it said in the

guidelines on preventive measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 in

workplace settings.

GOVT WITHDRAWS ORDER ON COMPULSORY WAGE PAYMENT BY FIRMS DURING LOCKDOWN

In what may come as a major relief to businesses, the Union government has

withdrawn its order directing employers to pay wages to workers, even with

units remaining shut during lockdown.

On Sunday, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) had issued a fresh set of

guidelines which will be applicable from Monday. It has repealed the order

dated March 29, 2020 which had talked about compulsory wage payment to

workers during lockdown.

The MHA had on March 29 issued an order under Section 10(2)(I) of the DM Act

asking all employers to pay wages to workers on due date without any

deduction even if the establishment was closed during the lockdown period.

In its petition to the SC, Nagareeka Exports Limited had said that the

payment of full salary to workers during the lockdown period when production

was zero or "very minimal" would lead to closure of many micro, small and

medium scale enterprises and "permanent unemployment of many people,

directly affecting the economy."

THE 'TRAVEL BUBBLE' IDEA THAT MANY ARE PINNING HOPES ON

The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have started what is

being referred to as a 'travel bubble' to help put their economies back on

track post-Covid lockdowns.

With the pandemic throwing both international and domestic trade and travel

out of gear since earlier this year, such 'travel bubbles' are now being

recommended to keep at least parts of the global economy afloat.

The three European Union (EU) states, who have launched this measure, have

so far remained comparatively unscathed by the virus, recording less than

150 combined Covid-19 deaths as of May 17.

Creating a travel bubble involves reconnecting countries or states that have

shown a good level of success in containing the novel coronavirus pandemic

domestically. Such a bubble would allow the members of the group to rekindle

trade ties with each other, and kickstart sectors such as travel and

tourism.

Potential travel bubbles among better-performing countries around the world

would account for around 35 per cent of the global GDP.

INDICATORS

Sensex 30,029 (-1069), Nifty 8,823 (-314), Trading Value NSE ,(Rs.crores)

52,063

Nasdaq 9,235 (+220) Dow 24,597 (+912), S&P 2,954 (+90)

***US$-Rs. 75.15 GBP-Rs. 91.30, Euro-Rs. 81.58, UAE Dhm-Rs.20.45, Can$-Rs.

53.59, Aus$- Rs. 48.65

GBP 0.82 /US$, Euro 0.92 /US$, Jap.Yen 107.27 /US$, Aus$ 1.54 /US$, Sing

1.42 /US$, Bang Taka 83.33 /US$, Can$ 1.40 /US$, Mal Ring 4.35 /US$,

Pak Re 159.40 /US$, Phil Peso 50.80 /US$, Russian Rouble 72.94 /US$, NZ$

1.66 /US$, Thai Baht 31.99 /US$, Ukraine Hryvnia 26.33 /US$, Norway NOK

10.11 /US$

Bitcoin - USD 9,564

Dollar Index 99.70 Brent Crude 35.07 BDI 427

Gold world Spot Price USD/aoz 1,738 India (Rs. per gm 24k/22k) 4,751 / 4,651

Silver (Rs. Per KG) 46,720

Note - ***The currency rates quoted above are only indicative. At best these

can give trends of currency movements. The banks' buy/sell rates can be

different from these.

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY

No matter how far you have gone down the wrong road, it's never too late to

turn back. - Turkish Proverb

OFF TRACK

Amy, a city girl, marries a farmer. One morning, before he goes out to the

fields, the farmer says to her, "The artificial insemination man is coming

to impregnate one of our cows today. I drove a big nail into the two-by-four

over the cow's stall. You show him where it is."

The farmer leaves, and a while later, the artificial insemination man

arrives. Amy takes him down the rows of cows until she sees the nail.

She says, "This is the one, right here."

The man says, "How do you know?"

Amy says, "By the nail over its stall."

The man says, "What's the nail for?"

Amy says, "I guess it's to hang your pants on."