INDIA'S GDP GROWTH SLOWS TO 11-YEAR LOW OF 4.2 PER CENT IN 2019-20
India's quarterly growth rate plummeted to its lowest in the current series
at 3.1 per cent in the January-March period of 2019-20, led by a sharp
contraction in the manufacturing and construction sectors, even as fresh
data provided clear indications of a further slide in estimates during the
April-June quarter.
The March quarter estimates dragged the overall GDP growth rate for 2019-20
to a 11-year low of 4.2 per cent, the provisional estimate released by
National Statistical Office on Friday showed. The period in question
includes only one week of lockdown to slow the spread of Covid-19 pandemic
in March.
The 4.2% growth rate is not only a far cry from the 8.5% growth that the
government expected in July 2019 when it presented the Budget for that year
but also significantly lower than the 5% that the Second Advance Estimates
suggested at the end of February earlier this year.
This is, of course, the growth rate in real GDP. A similar fall can be seen
in the trajectory of the nominal GDP, which is the observed variable. Real
GDP is arrived at by subtracting the inflation level from nominal GDP
growth.
At the time of the 2019-20 Budget presentation in July, nominal GDP was
expected to grow by 12%-12.5%. By the end of it, provisional estimates peg
it at just 7.2%. In 2018-19, the nominal GDP grew by 11%.
This sharp deceleration in nominal GDP growth, more than anything else,
shows the continued weakening of India's growth momentum even before it was
hit by the Covid-19 induced lockdown in the last week of March.
A sharp fall in nominal GDP means the government does not get the revenues
it had hoped for and, as such, it can't spend as much as it wanted to.
Secondly, the substantial deceleration in nominal GDP growth reflects poorly
on the government's fiscal marksmanship. In other words, it shows that the
government was not able to assess the magnitude of economic growth
deceleration that was underway. Poor fiscal marksmanship, in turn, leads to
inaccurate policy making because a government could end up making policies
for an economy that doesn't actually exist on the ground.
COVID-19 CRISIS: OVER TO STATES AS NEXT PHASE OF LOCKDOWN SET TO KICK IN
Two days before lockdown 4.0 comes to a close, the Centre and states engaged
in hectic parleys to chalk out the road ahead. After taking chief ministers'
views on the contours of the next lockdown, Union Home Minister Amit Shah
met PM Narendra Modi on Friday before finalising the guidelines.
States are likely to have a bigger role than the Centre in deciding how much
to open from June 1.
After a first of its kind meeting between Shah and CMs, officials said from
now on, lockdown measures would be reviewed every fortnight and restrictions
would largely be decided by states.
Even as there's no consensus among states on the shape of the next lockdown,
many favoured extension of curbs to contain the spread of Covid-19 cases.
Kerala, Jharkhand and Haryana are among those concerned that economic
reasons outweighing health considerations could sharply increase the number
of cases.
Therefore, they want the lockdown extended. ''Considering the cases are
going up, the recommendations are not in favour of lifting of the
lockdown,'' a Kerala govt official said.
However, others such as West Bengal, Karnataka, Punjab, and Goa supported
further relaxations to spur economic activity. After his meeting with Shah,
Goa CM Pramod Sawant said he felt the lockdown may be extended for 15 more
days. "However, we want some more relaxations like opening of restaurants
with social distancing at 50 per cent capacity," he said.
Mamata Banerjee approved opening religious places from June 1 with
restrictions. "Considering the sorry state of affairs in the country, let us
come forward and pray together," Banerjee said on Friday.
Karnataka, too, has decided to open the doors to religious places from June
1. Pujas can be offered through an app which would soon start taking
bookings.
Punjab CM Amarinder Singh told a group of industrialists that his govt wants
to ensure 100 per cent operationalization over the next few days. He said 78
per cent of the industry had resumed operations, and 68 per cent of the
migrant labour has opted to stay back in Punjab.
WILL SET GLOBAL EXAMPLE FOR ECONOMIC REVIVAL: PM MODI IN LETTER TO NATION
Acknowledging the "tremendous suffering" faced by the poor and vulnerable
during the lockdown, Prime Minister Narendra Modi Friday reiterated the need
"to take care to ensure that inconveniences that we are facing do not turn
into disasters".
Advising citizens to follow rules and guidelines with patience, he said: "We
must always remember that the present and future of 130 crore will never be
dictated by an adversity."
In a letter to the nation that also marked the first year of his second
term, Modi wrote: "In a crisis of this magnitude, it can certainly not be
claimed that no one suffered any inconvenience or discomfort. Our labourers,
migrant workers, artisans and craftsmen in small scale industries, hawkers
and such fellow countrymen have undergone tremendous suffering."
That's why, Modi said, it was all the more important that "every Indian.
follow all rules and guidelines."
Applauding the "sheer confidence," "resilience" and patience shown by people
which has ensured that India is "in a better state than many other
countries," Modi said: "This is a long battle but we have started traversing
on the path of victory and victory is our collective resolve."
Referring to the impact of the pandemic on the economy, the Prime Minister
said there was a "firm belief" that just as it has done with the fight
against Covid, India will also "set an example in economic revival." Through
their strength, Modi said, "130 crore Indians can not only surprise the
world but also inspire it."
CHINA TOO REJECTS US MEDIATION OFFER
After India, China on Friday too rejected US President Donald Trump's offer
to "mediate" between India and China to end their border standoff, saying
the two countries are capable of resolving their differences through
dialogue and did not require the help of a "third party".
In an embarrassment to the US President, sources here denied his claims of
having spoken to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on India's military standoff
with China in eastern Ladakh. In fact, they underlined that no conversation
has taken place between the two leaders since April 4 when they spoke on
export of hydroxychloroquine.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has been stressing on bilateralism to
resolve the dispute even as the US, first by senior diplomat Alice Wells and
later Trump, sought to triangulate it.
For the first time, the Chinese Foreign Office also spoke against the US
offer for mediation. "We are capable of properly resolving the issues
between us through dialogue and consultation. We do not need the
intervention of the third party," its spokesperson said at a media briefing
here. "We have existing border-related mechanisms and communication channels
between China and India," he added.
The clarification from both India and China was prompt after Trump said in
response to question that he had spoken to PM Modi and went on to say that
the Indian PM was not in a "good mood" over the "big conflict" between India
and China.
A day earlier, the MEA had said India was directly in touch with China
through established mechanisms and diplomatic contacts to resolve the border
stand-off.
COVID-19 DASHBOARD - (Nos. IN INDIA / Nos. WORLDWIDE)
(Indian data from covid19india / and World Data from
worldometers.info/coronavirus/ )
Total Cases 1,73,480 (+8,104) / 60,31,023 (+1,25,608)
Total Deaths 4,980 (+269) / 3,66,812 (+4,788)
Total Recovered 82,627 (+11,707) / 26,59,270 (+79,579)
Active Cases 85,873 (-3,872) / 30,04,941 (+41,241)
Serious / Critical Cases - N.A. / 53,734 (-238)
Top impacted nations so far: (And some of India's Neighbours)
Country, Total Cases / Total Deaths / Recovered Cases / Active
Cases
1 USA 17,93,530 / 1,04,542 /
5,19,569 / 11,69,419
2 Brazil 4,68,338 / 27,944 /
1,93,181 / 2,47,213
3 Russia 3,87,623 / 4,374 /
1,59,257 / 2,23,992
4 Spain 2,85,644 / 27,121 /
1,96,958 / 61,565
5 UK 2,71,222 / 38,161 / N/A
/ N/A
6 Italy 2,32,248 / 33,229 /
1,52,844 / 46,175
7 France 1,86,835 / 28,714 / 67,803
/ 90,318
8 Germany 1,83,019 / 8,594 /
1,64,100 / 10,325
9 India 1,73,491 / 4,980 /
82,627 / 85,884
10 Turkey 1,62,120 / 4,489 /
1,25,963 / 31,668
11 Peru 1,48,285 / 4,230 /
62,791 / 81,264
18 Pakistan 64,028 / 1,317 / 22,305
/ 40,406
22 Bangladesh 42,844 / 582 / 9,015
/ 33,247
98 Sri Lanka 1,558 / 10 / 754
/ 794
Top 17 impacted Indian States so far: (Total No. of Confirmed case / No. Of
Deaths)
State / Confirmed Cases / Active Case / Recovered /
Deceased
Maharashtra 62,228 / 33,133 / 26,997 /
2,098
Tamil Nadu 20,246 / 8,776 / 11,313 /
157
Delhi 17,386 / 9,142 / 7,846 / 398
Gujarat 15,944 / 6,353 / 8,611 / 980
Rajasthan 8,365 / 2,937 / 5,244 /
184
Madhya Pradesh 7,645 / 3,042 / 4,269
/ 334
Uttar Pradesh 7,445 / 2,834 / 4,410 /
201
West Bengal 4,813 / 2,736 / 1,775 /
302
Bihar 3,359 / 2,135 / 1,209 / 15
Andhra Pradesh 3,330 / 1,036 / 2,234
/ 60
Karnataka 2,781 / 1,837 / 894 /
48
Telangana 2,425 / 973 / 1,381 /
71
Punjab 2,197 / 206 / 1,949 / 42
Jammu and Kashmir 2,164 / 1,261 / 875 /
28
Odisha 1,723 / 737 / 977 / 9
Haryana 1,721 / 762 / 940 /
19
Kerala 1,151 / 577 / 565 / 9
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
======================
TRUMP SAYS US TERMINATING RELATIONSHIP WITH WHO
Accusing the World Health Organisation of being "totally controlled" by
China, US President Donald Trump late Friday announced the country will
permanently "terminate" its relationship with the organisation and will
redirect funds from the WHO to other organisations.
"China has total control over the WHO despite only paying $40 million a year
compared to what the US has been paying which is approx $450 million a year.
But the WHO has failed to make requested and needed reforms and so we will
be terminating our relationship with the WHO," he said.
The US President also said he is directing his administration to begin the
process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and
special treatment, citing the Chinese parliament's advancement of national
security legislation for Hong Kong, which democracy activists and Western
countries fear could erode the city's freedoms.
"We will be revising the State Department's travel advisory for Hong Kong to
reflect the increased danger of surveillance and punishment by Chinese state
security apparatus," he added.
STAY OUT OF HK AFFAIRS, CHINA TELLS NATIONS
China has lodged diplomatic protests with the US, the UK, Canada and
Australia for "interfering" in its internal matters by criticising its new
security law for Hong Kong and also warned America of countermeasures if it
did not stop the "frivolous" political manipulation over the issue.
China's parliament on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a new controversial
security law for Hong Kong, a move that critics say threatens the
fundamental political freedoms and civil liberties in the semi-autonomous
territory, also a major global trading hub.
The security legislation bans secession, subversion of state power,
terrorism, foreign intervention and allows mainland China's state security
agencies to operate in Hong Kong. "China's decision to impose the new
national security law on Hong Kong lies in direct conflict with its
international obligations under the principles of the legally binding,
UN-registered Sino-British Joint Declaration," the joint statement released
by the four countries said.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian told a media briefing on
Friday that China has lodged diplomatic protests with the four countries.
THE REST
========
TREMORS IN DELHI; SEVENTH SINCE APRIL 12
Tremors were felt in Delhi on Friday evening after an earthquake of 4.5
magnitude struck near Rohtak in Haryana, which is about 65 kilometres from
the national capital.
According to the National Centre for Seismology (NCS), the earthquake
occurred at 9.08pm with a depth of 5 kilometres. This was the seventh
earthquake to have been felt in the national capital since April 12 this
year, as per data from the NCS.
Friday's earthquake had a higher magnitude than those recorded previously
since April 12 in and around Delhi, with a range of between 3.5 and 2.
Delhi lies on Zone IV of the seismic map of India. As per the NCS, Zones IV
and V have high probability of earthquakes that can be destructive or worse.
RAILWAYS' TREATMENT OF MIGRANTS BORDERS ON BARBARISM: NHRC
Saying that the treatment of migrant workers "by the Railway authorities
borders around barbarism", the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has
issued notices to the Railway Board chairman, Union home secretary and chief
secretaries of Bihar and Gujarat.
It has asked them to submit a report, within four weeks, on the steps taken
to ensure basic facilities to migrants.
The NHRC, which issued the notices on Thursday, said it was taking suo motu
cognizance of media reports on trains taking days to reach their destination
and how "many migrant labourers lost (their) lives during the journey by
train due to longer duration and no arrangements for drinking water and food
etc."
FORMER CHHATTISGARH CM AJIT JOGI DIES AT 74; THREE-DAY MOURNING IN STATE
Ajit Jogi, an IAS officer-turned- politician who went on to become the first
chief minister of Chhattisgarh in 2000, died on Friday at a city hospital
where he was being treated for the last 20 days, doctors said.
Jogi (74), who had slipped into coma, suffered a cardiac arrest in the
afternoon and could not be revived, they said.
He is survived by his wife Renu Jogi, the MLA from Kota constituency, and
son Amit, a former MLA.
Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel declared three-day mourning in the state as a
mark of respect to the departed leader, whose last rites will take place on
Saturday at his native place Gaurela.
IN DELHI, COVID HOTEL-HOSPITALS FOR TREATMENT, ISOLATION
The Delhi government on Friday roped in hotels for treatment as well as
isolation of Covid-19 patients. For treatment, the government has tied up
with five hotels that will be converted into "extended Covid hospitals",
augmenting the bed capacity by 1,000 beds.
"Beds in government hospitals are lying vacant, even ICUs and ventilators
are available. But people are opting for admission to private hospitals. The
government's responsibility is to provide treatment to all. But since the
private hospitals are running full, it's a good decision to attach hotels
for treatment of coronavirus patients. Anticipating a surge, we have started
preparation for the coming days. The percentage of positive patients is also
increasing, which is a red alert for us," said Dr Arun Gupta, president of
the Delhi Medical Council.
DGCA SAYS LOCUST SWARMS POSE THREAT TO AIRCRAFT
As fast-spreading locust swarms enter urban areas of India, Aviation
regulator DGCA Friday issued guidelines for stakeholders like pilots and
engineers on how to deal with the issue as they pose a threat to aircraft in
the critical landing and takeoff phase of a flight.
India is battling the worst desert locust outbreak in decades eating their
way across vast swath of crops in Rajasthan, now invading Punjab, Gujarat,
Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.
"Though an individual locust is small in size, impact of large numbers on
the windshield is known to have impacted the pilot forward vision. This is a
grave concern during the landing, taxi and takeoff phase," the DGCA circular
said.
"THIS TIME, INDIA'S WALLET POWER WILL BE MORE EFFECTIVE AGAINST CHINA"
Educator and innovator Sonam Wangchuk has created a buzz online after his
message to boycott Chinese goods went going viral amid the escalating
tension at LAC in Ladakh. In an appeal, he urged the countrymen to snub
products made in China and uninstall Chinese apps.
Wangchuk, who inspired Phunsukh Wangdu's character essayed by Aamir Khan in
the film 3 Idiots, recently released a YouTube video titled 'China Ko Jawaab
Sena Degi Bullet Se, Naagrik Dengey Wallet Se', explaining how people can
help the country in this situation.
With a message to give up 'softwares in a week' and 'hardwares in a year',
Wangchuk, sitting against the picturesque views of the Himalayas and river
Sindhu, explains in the video how just beyond the mountains, thousands of
soldiers are trying to protect the country.
"Is baar Bharat ki bullet power se zyada wallet power kaam aaegi (This time,
India's wallet power rather than bullet power will be more effective),"
Wangchuk says in the video.
Stressing that if Indians, including the NRIs, decide to boycott Chinese
goods, it would have a huge impact on the Chinese economy and would irk its
people, leading to a possible toppling of their government. Asserting that
he is not against the people of China but the government, Wangchuk said
there must be a change regarding the functioning of Chinese authorities.
ASTROLOGER BEJAN DARUWALLA PASSES AWAY
Renowned astrologer Bejan Daruwalla died at a private hospital here on
Friday evening, his family said. Daruwalla, known for his newspaper columns
on astrology, was 90.
His son Nastur Daruwalla denied the speculation on social media that his
father had contracted coronavirus. Daruwalla was suffering from only
pneumonia, he said.
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THOUGHT FOR THE DAY
Not what we have, but what we use; Not what we see, but what we choose.. -
Joseph Fort Newton
OFF TRACK
A jockey is in the parade ring discussing race tactics with the horse's
trainer. The trainer tells the jockey that this is the worst horse he has
ever seen. It has had 23 races and finished last in every one of them. If it
doesn't win today the milkman will be using it for deliveries in the
morning.
The jockey mounts up and takes the horse down to the start. The race begins
and the horse is immediately 10 lengths behind the pack! So the jockey gives
the horse a sharp thwap on the shoulder. Nothing.
He then gives him a series of strikes on the rump. Nothing.
He then gives him two wallops right on the hindquarters.
The horse comes to a sudden stop, turns to the jockey and says "Give it a
rest with that whip, will ya, buddy? I have to be up at four in the morning
to deliver milk"!
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