ASSEMBLY POLLS RESULTS: BJP 4, AAP 1, CONG ZERO

UP (403)

BJP+    273 (approx 42% vote share)

SP+      125 (32%)

INC      2 (2.3%)

BSP     1 (12.88%)

OTH     2

PUNJAB (117)

AAP     92 (42%)

INC      18 (22%)

SAD     3 (18%)

BJP      2 (6.6%)

BSP     1 (1.8%)

Ind.      1

UTTARAKHAND (70)

BJP      47 (44%)

INC      19 (38%)

BSP     2 (4.8%)

Ind.      2

MANIPUR (60)

BJP      32 (38%)

INC+    5 (17%)

NPP     7 (17%)

JDU     6 (11%)

OTHERS          10

GOA (40)

BJP      20 (33%)

INC      11 (23%)

MGP    2 (7.6%)

AAP     2 (6.8%)

TMC     0 (5.2%)

OTHERS          5

In a resounding endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies, amid criticism of the handling of the pandemic and job losses, especially in main battleground UP where Yogi Adityanath was seeking a second term, four of five states that went to polls returned the BJP to power Thursday.

The AAP swept Punjab, packing off stalwarts and uprooting rival parties to change the political landscape.

Elated over the BJP’s 4/5 score, Modi, addressing party workers in New Delhi, said he hoped “political pundits, who did not think much of the party’s 2019 (Lok Sabha) win saying it had already been decided by the 2017 UP results, will now have the courage to say that the 2022 (UP) results have decided the 2024 (Lok Sabha) results.”

With the BJP set to form governments again in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, Modi said: “A hill state adjacent to the border, a coastal state, a state with special blessings of Mother Ganga and a state on the northeastern border, the BJP has received blessings from all four directions.” “The challenges of these states are different, the path of their development journey is different, but what is common, weaving them in the same thread, is the trust in BJP, in the BJP’s policies, intentions and decisions,” he said. He also hit out at opposition parties without directly naming them for trying to save the corrupt following action of institutions acting independently against them and expressed concern that critics have invoked caste, religion and region in their efforts to impede probe.

People should shun such voices, Modi said, asserting that his government is not only expected to work with integrity but also act against those who have been involved in corruption.

The Congress party’s stock slid further despite a high-octane campaign by Gandhi siblings Priyanka and Rahul. Voted out of Punjab, it won only two seats in UP where its vote share dropped to a little over 2 per cent.

Notwithstanding the political heat generated over the Tikunia violence which had left four farmers among eight people dead ahead of assembly polls, the BJP made a clean sweep by winning all eight seats in Lakhimpur Kheri.

AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, whose party got a stunning mandate in Punjab, said: “Pehle Dilli mein inquilab hua, phir Punjab mein inquilab hua, ab yeh inquilab poore desh ke andar phailega (The revolution came to Delhi first, then Punjab, now it will spread to the entire country)……Badi badi kursiyaan hil gayi hain Punjab ke andar (thrones have been shaken in Punjab). Sukhbir Singh Badal lost, Captain Saheb lost, Channi Saheb lost, Parkash Singh Badal Saheb lost, Navjot Singh Sidhu lost, Vikram Singh Majithia lost. People of Punjab have worked wonders, and this is a big revolution.”

LANDSLIDE FOR AAP SWEEPS ASIDE STALWARTS, SHIFTS GROUND IN PUNJAB

Eight years after it first emerged as a formidable force in Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi party has marked a tectonic shift in national politics, winning 92 of 117 seats in Punjab with a vote share of 42.1 per cent, up from 20 seats and a vote share of 23.7 per cent last time.

And by equalling the Congress tally of two chief ministers, it is now the third political pole in the country at a time when regional leaders are jockeying to emerge as the Opposition’s face for the 2024 general elections.

Referring to allegations levelled against him during the campaign, Kejriwal said: “Everybody came together against AAP and said Kejriwal is a terrorist. The people of the country have said that Kejirwal is not a terrorist, he is the real deshbhakt (patriot).”

He said: “Bhagat Singh had said once that after getting Independence, if we don’t change the system, nothing will happen. In the past 75 years, these parties and politicians have kept the system of the British. They didn’t make any schools or hospitals. The AAP has changed the system in the past seven years.”

In the process, all big names of Punjab politics – The Badal father and son, Bikram Singh Majithia, Navjot Singh Sidhu, Charanjit Singh Channi, Capt. Amrinder Singh – lost their ‘secure’ seats.

Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh now figure prominently on AAP’s radar, senior leaders say.

In Gujarat, where elections are expected this year-end, the party is already on campaign mode as it seeks to capitalise on its moment in history by filling the space vacated by a diminishing Congress.

37-YR JINX BROKEN, YOGI FIRST SITTING UP CM TO RETURN TO POWER SINCE 1985

Uttar Pradesh broke a 35-year jinx which never allowed a sitting chief minister (CM) to return for a second term even if an incumbent party was voted back to power.

BJP lost 59 of the seats won since 2017, but increased its vote share from 39.67 per cent to 41.9 per cent, proving that anti-incumbency had not caught up in a big way with its governance.

The BJP and Yogi Adityanath were up against several odds when electioneering began. The UP party organisation was “upset” with him for allegedly remaining inaccessible to the legislators, Members of Parliament, ministers, and functionaries; complaints to the effect surfaced during the second wave of Covid-19 that hit the state brutally. The farmers’ agitation in western UP threatened to erode the BJP’s base among the prosperous Jat farmers, while the overall agrarian distress — spurred by the increased cost of agricultural inputs and lower returns on the produce, a fertiliser and urea crunch on the eve of the sowing season last November, an uneven irrigation spread, the absence of micro-irrigation facilities, and rogue cattle devouring crops — impacted small and marginal farmers who formed the BJP’s backbone.

The trading and business community, hit by demonetisation, suffered losses during the pandemic. On top of these problems, the departure of certain sectional leaders from the BJP threatened to fray the social engineering fabric of the backward castes and Dalits woven before 2014.

COVID DASHBOARD – INDIA

As of 0800 IST / March 11

from mohfw.gov.in ,

New Cases on Thursday 4,194

Active Cases 42,219  (-2,269)

Total Deaths (Deaths Yesterday) 5,15,714 (52)

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

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BIDEN OFFICIALS BAT FOR INDIA AMID CRITICISM OF STAND ON UKRAINE CRISIS

The Biden administration is batting for India and its nuanced stand on the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio despite considerable disquiet in the US Congress over New Delhi’s abstentions during UN votes that appeared to favour Moscow. Following intense outreach and briefings by Indian diplomats to explain New Delhi’s compulsions for abstaining, a key Pentagon official told a Congressional hearing on Wednesday that the US recognises India has a “complicated history and relationship” with Russia, while expressing optimism over New Delhi eventually weaning itself away from Moscow.

“The good news is that they are in a multi-year process of diversifying their arms purchases away from Russia. That’s going to take some time, but they are clearly committed to doing that, including increasing the indigenisation of their own defence industry,” assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, Ely Ratner, told members of the House Armed Services Committee. “That’s something we should support,” he added.

Ratner and other officials have been pressed in recent days by lawmakers, some of whom have clubbed India with China in describing them as being in the Russian camp. Indian diplomats have been working overtime to brief lawmakers, thinktanks, and the administration that New Delhi’s abstention is driven foremost by humanitarian considerations, including the need to extricate more than 20,000 of its nationals in Ukraine, and it does not constitute an unqualified support for Russia’s actions.

WORLD CONDEMNS HOSPITAL STRIKE, RUSSIA ARMY SAYS ATTACK STAGED

A Russian airstrike on a Mariupol maternity hospital that killed three people brought condemnation down on Moscow on Thursday, with Ukrainian and Western officials branding it a war crime. Ukrainian authorities said a child was among the at least three people who died in Wednesday’s airstrike in the vital southern port of Mariupol. In addition to the dead, 17 people were wounded, including women waiting to give birth.

Images of pregnant women covered in dust and blood dominated news reports in many countries and brought a new wave of horror over the 2week-old war sparked by Russia’s invasion. Regional Ukrainian police official Volodymir Nikulin, standing in the ruins, called the attack “a war crime”. US vice president Kamala Harris, on a visit to Poland, backed calls for an international war-crimes investigation into the invasion. The UN Human Rights body said it was trying to verify the number of casualties, while voicing “deep concerns about indiscriminate use of weapons. ”

The Russian army claimed that the hospital attack was a “staged provocation”. “The Russian aviation carried out absolutely no missions to hit targets on the ground in the Mariupol area,” a defence spokesman said. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, meanwhile, claimed without providing evidence that the hospital had been seized by far-right radical fighters who were using it as a base. Other Russian officials rejected the bombing as fake news. The Kremlin was more circumspect, saying the incident was being probed.

A LANCET STUDY ESTIMARTES FAR HIGHER COVID DEATHS WORLDWIDE

An estimated 18.2 million people globally may have died because of the Covid-19 pandemic by 31 December 2021, which is about three times the official Covid death figures of 5.9 million, an analysis published in The Lancet has concluded.

According to the study, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to Covid-19 were estimated in India at 40.7 lakh.

The study also looked at the excess mortality figures of 12 Indian states. Among these, the ratio between excess and reported Covid-19 deaths was the highest in Bihar at 26.68 and the lowest in Goa at 0.96.

“Based largely on empirical excess mortality observed in 12 Indian states, including during the surge in Covid-19 cases between April and July, 2021, we found that at the national level, India had an estimated 152 excess deaths per 1,00,000 of the population over the study period,” the study noted. This, it added, was much higher than the reported COVID-19 mortality rate of 18.3 per 1,00,000 in the same period.

Other countries that recorded the highest cumulative excess deaths were the US at 11.3 lakh, Russia at 10.7 lakh, Mexico at 7,98,000, Brazil at 7,92,000, Indonesia at 7,36,000, and Pakistan at 6,64,000. These seven countries may have accounted for more than half of global excess deaths caused by the pandemic over the 24-month period.

Among these countries, the excess deaths rates were highest in Russia (375 deaths per 1,00,000), Mexico (325 deaths per 1,00,000), Brazil (187 deaths per 1,00,000), and the USA (179 deaths per 1,00,000). India had an estimated 152 excess deaths per 1,00,000.

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MY HEART IS BLEEDING, SAYS GHULAM NABI AZAD

This crisis isn’t new for the Congress, the party has won just five of the 45 elections held since 2014. But what struck a different note this time was that even the familiar refrain of the need to re-invent was absent. Instead, there is a sense of despair and a foreboding of impending internal upheaval.

“I am shocked, my heart is bleeding to see our defeat in state after state,” said CWC member Ghulam Nabi Azad. “We gave our entire youth and life to the party…I am sure that the party’s leadership will take note of all weaknesses and shortcomings which my colleagues and I had been talking about for quite some time.”

Party leader Shashi Tharoor, meanwhile, reiterated his call for leadership reform. “All of us who believe in @INCIndia are hurting from the results of the recent assembly elections. It is time to reaffirm the idea of India that the Congress has stood for and the positive agenda it offers the nation — and to reform our organisational leadership in a manner that will reignite those ideas and inspire the people. One thing is clear – Change is unavoidable if we need to succeed,” he tweeted.

Sources said some G-23 leaders will meet at Azad’s residence today to chalk out the next course of action.

Officially, the party said it had expected better results in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa. Party spokesperson Randeep Surjewala had a message for his colleagues too. “If we break the branch on which we are sitting, then the tree, the branch and the leaders will also fall as has been evident today in some states,” he said. “Whether the war or the quest for positions has become so bitter that we are harming or cutting the very tree that the Congress people are sitting upon. That is a question each one of us must think about,” he said.

TIME TO MERGE WITH US, TMC TELLS CONGRESS

After the assembly polls results yesterday, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) once again targeted the Congress, saying that the party has “failed in taking on the BJP nationally”. TMC leaders added that the Congress should merge with the TMC and called upon its leaders to join hands under the leadership of its chairperson Mamata Banerjee, who is the “only one who can defeat BJP.”

TMC leader and State Transport and Urban Development Minister Firhad Hakim said, “I do not understand why such an old party like the Congress is disappearing. We were also part of this party. The Congress should merge with the TMC. This is the right time. Then nationally on the principles of Mahatma Gandhi and Subhash Chandra Bose we can fight against the principles of (Nathuram) Godse.”

IN MANIPUR, NPP BETTERS ITS TALLY TO EMERGE AS 2ND LARGEST PARTY

As much as Thursday’s mandate was about the BJP hitting the majority mark in a historic win in Manipur, it also signalled emergence of a strong regional party in the Northeast: National People’s Party (NPP).

The regional party that leads a coalition government under Conrad Sangma in neighbouring Meghalaya transitioned from being ‘kingmaker’ in 2017 to the second largest party in 2022, even ahead of the Congress. Apart from the NPP, Nitish Kumar’s JD-U opened its account in the state after two decades, winning six seats.

IN CM DHAMI, RAWAT’S DEFEAT, A TRADITION LIVES ON

The brief political history of Uttarakhand suggests that the hill state has never been kind to those who occupy the chief ministerial chair. No sitting chief minister in the state could ever defend his own seat, and the last five chief ministers have been on a political slide after vacating  the chair.

The trend continued in the Thursday results of the Assembly elections as sitting CM Pushkar Singh Dhami and former CM Harish Rawat couldn’t win their respective seats. The giant killers — Congress candidate Bhuwan Chandra Kapri who defeated Dhami, and Mohan Singh Bisht who got better of Rawat — registered their first victory in a Vidhan Sabha election.

GOA: BJP SET FOR THIRD TERM WITH SUPPORT, CONGRESS BLAMES SPLIT IN VOTES

The BJP is set to form the government in Goa for the third consecutive time, winning 20 of the total 40 seats in the Assembly on Thursday. With its former ally, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (two seats), which was in a pre-poll alliance with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), extending support to the BJP after the results were announced, and three Independent candidates also backing it, the BJP was well over the halfway mark.

Chief Minister Pramod Sawant seemed set to return to the top post, pulling off a win under his leadership that party leaders said was better than expected. “Our central observers of the parliamentary board are expected to arrive tomorrow, after which we will stake claim to form the government,” Sawant told media persons on Thursday.

P Chidambaram, the Congress’s special election observer for Goa, said: “We accept the verdict of the people of Goa… The overwhelming majority voted against the BJP, but their votes were split among many parties (he meant AAP and TMC but didn’t name them), which gave the BJP the opportunity to win 20 seats”.

‘UNPRECEDENTED SITUATION’: SEC SEEKS LEGAL ADVICE ON HOLDING MCD ELECTIONS

The Delhi State Election Commission (SEC) has sought legal advice on if it can still hold elections for the three municipal corporations. It was scheduled to announce the election schedule Wednesday but deferred it following a communication from the Centre on the unification of the civic bodies.

The Centre will have to make an amendment to the Delhi Municipal Corporation (DMC) Act to unify the three municipalities — South, North and East MCDs.

An official Thursday said the SEC had time to conduct the elections before the term of the House of the local bodies ends on May 18, but would need to seek legal opinion. New members have to be elected before this date.

SENSEX ZOOMS 817 POINTS ON HOPES OF STABILITY AS BJP WINS 4 STATES

The sensex extended its rally for the third consecutive session on Thursday after results of elections in five states showed consolidation of votes for the BJP. Thursday’s 817-point surge was the biggest gain for the sensex following any state election results.

The rally had started on Tuesday after exit polls the previous evening indicated strong gains for the BJP and the upswing gathered momentum on Wednesday. In last three sessions, the sensex has added a little over 2,600 points, or nearly 5%, since closing at a seven-month low of 52,843 on Monday, mainly because of uncertainties relating to the Ukraine war.

INDICATORS

Sensex 55,464 (+817), Nifty 16,595 (+250), Trading Value NSE (Rs.crores) 73,804

Nasdaq 13,129 (-126) Dow 33,174 (-112), S&P 4,260 (-18)

US$-Rs. 76.22 GBP-Rs. 100.16, Euro-Rs. 84.06, UAE Dhm-Rs.20.74, Can$-Rs. 59.55, Aus$- Rs. 55.93

GBP 0.76 /US$, Euro 0.90 /US$, Jap.Yen 116.04 /US$, Aus$ 1.36 /US$, Sing 1.35 /US$, Bang Taka 84.12 /US$, Can$ 1.27 /US$, Mal Ring 4.18 /US$,

Pak Re 177.85 /US$, Phil Peso 52.17 /US$, Russian Rouble 130.18 /US$, NZ$ 1.45 /US$, Thai Baht 33.06 /US$, Ukraine Hryvnia 29.38 /US$

Bitcoin - USD 38,434

Dollar Index 98.50 Brent Crude 108.72 BDI 2,704

Gold world Spot Price USD/aoz 1,994 India (Rs. per gm 24k/22k) 5,258 / 4,820, Silver (Rs. Per KG) 74,100

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY

We know what we are, but know not what we may be. - William Shakespeare

OFF TRACK

- "No problem is so formidable that you can't walk away from it."

- "What the world needs is more geniuses with humility, there are so few of us left."

- "To be stupid, selfish, and have good health are three requirements for happiness, though if stupidity is lacking, all is lost.”