NATION MUST STAY VIGILANT AGAINST VIRUS

Hubei province is lowering its level of response to the novel coronavirus outbreak from the highest level on Saturday, but while this measure is taken by China's hardest-hit area, authorities across the nation were urged to remain vigilant against the disease after loopholes were found in epidemic prevention and control in Heilongjiang province.

In a release on Friday, the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, China's Cabinet, called for better control of hospital infections, stronger nucleic acid testing capabilities and more attention to the risk of imported infections nationwide.

Since April, cluster infections caused by imported cases have resurged in the cities of Harbin and Mudanjiang in Heilongjiang. The infections also affected several hospitals, infecting dozens of people including medical staff.

In April, 131 domestically transmitted infections were reported on the Chinese mainland, of which more than 60 percent resulted from cluster infections in Heilongjiang, Mi Feng, a spokesman for the National Health Commission, said on Friday.

Of the six newly reported domestic cases on Thursday, five were in Heilongjiang and one in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, he said at a daily briefing.

The authorities in Harbin and Mudanjiang have failed to realize the risk of imported infections and were lacking in their capability to curb the epidemic, according to the release.

The two cities also failed to implement the 14-day quarantine measure for people returning from overseas.

The resurgence of cluster infections has also exposed loopholes in infection control in hospitals, and a lack of capability in conducting nucleic acid tests in medical institutions in Harbin, it said.

All health authorities and medical institutions across the country are required to learn lessons from this.

All localities should improve management to detect, report, isolate and treat infections as early as possible, and provide support in policies, funds, human resources and materials to help medical institutions improve testing capacity and efficiency, the release said.

In a separate circular on Friday, the State Council also called for adopting strict measures to minimize possible infections in hospitals.

Hospitals should draft more detailed measures to curb infections. Fever clinics−the first place to encounter possible COVID-19 patients−must shoulder the responsibility of early reporting, early diagnosis and early quarantine, and transfer patients to designated hospitals in a timely manner, it said.

Meanwhile, Hubei, the nation's hardest-hit province, on Friday announced the lowering of its emergency response level from the highest to the second level from Saturday, after the province reported no new infections for 27 consecutive days.

A total of 82,874 infections had been reported on the Chinese mainland as of Thursday, with 4,633 deaths. Among them, Hubei province registered 68,128 infections and 4,512 deaths, according to the National Health Commission.

Yang Yunyan, vice-governor of Hubei, said on Friday that people were encouraged to avoid mass gatherings and indoor recreational facilities would remain closed.

CHINA SEES 23M DOMESTIC TOURIST TRIPS ON 1ST DAY OF MAY DAY HOLIDAY

China saw more than 23 million domestic tourist trips made Friday, the first day of the five-day May Day holiday, with the domestic tourism revenue reaching over 9.7 billion yuan (about $1.38 billion), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

A total of 8,498 A-level tourist attractions opened to the public on Friday, covering about 70 percent of the total, said the ministry, adding that the tourist flow in open tourist attractions is limited to no more than 30 percent of the maximum tourist capacity.

It also said that no serious tourism-related accidents or complaints had been reported on Friday.

This year's May Day holiday runs from May 1 to 5.

STUDY CONFIRMS ACCURACY OF CHINESE DATA

A globally recognized fraud detection technique shows that China's COVID-19 data is not manipulated, a study has found, so policy makers in the rest of the world can trust the Chinese data and formulate policy accordingly.

The study, released on Monday, was conducted by Christoffer Koch, a senior research economist at the Federal Research Bank of Dallas and Ken Okamura, a researcher with the University of Oxford's Said Business School.

Contrary to speculation that China had understated the numbers of those affected by the coronavirus, "we find no evidence that the Chinese massaged their COVID-19 statistics," using Benford's Law, a statistical fraud detection technique, to assess the veracity of the statistics, said the study.

Benford's Law is used to detect fraud or flaws in data collection based on the distribution of the first digits of observed data and is widely used in economics and accounting. It was also used to examine the reported weekly number of confirmed cases from 35 countries during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.

Though it was possible to create data series that fit Benford's Law, to manipulate the data in this fashion would require someone to coordinate daily announcements across all provinces, while accurately forecasting future infection rates. This, the study found, was improbable.

As China is at least a month ahead of Europe and six weeks ahead of the US as far as the pandemic goes, its data should be used not only for the calibration of models to inform policy measures to slow infection, but also for guidance in the lifting of stay-at-home orders, the study added.

The city of Wuhan in Central China's Hubei province revised up its number of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 325 to 50,333, and added 1,290 more fatalities, taking the total to 3,869 as of the end of April 16. This reflected incorrect reporting, delays and omissions, according to the Wuhan municipal headquarters in charge of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control.

The study found that "China's distribution of first digits for confirmed cases is line with Benford's Law... It also matches the distribution found in the United States and Italy".

The paper also pointed out that the ongoing doubts over the credibility of China's data are problematic as "it impacts subsequent policy choices by countries that saw epidemics later".

The study added that since the policy choices of many countries were to undertake social distancing, travel bans and lockdowns patterned after the successful choices made by China, "it is important that policy makers know the data is reliable.

"Lack of confidence in the Chinese data may have led to a slower response in Europe to the emergent pandemic," it added.

PSYCHOLOGISTS USE PHONES TO EASE FEARS

With the novel coronavirus largely under control in China, the public's anxiety has been eased. One reason for that is the effort made by psychological counselors.

A group of 89 psychologists organized by the Beijing Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau has provided free telephone counseling to the public since Feb 7, helping to boost the morale of residents in regions hit hard by the outbreak during their days of quarantine.

In the beginning, callers mainly wanted to know the details of the epidemic. Those outside the country also asked how to return to the capital in appropriate ways, said Bai Yan, a supervisor of the counseling group.

"But as locally transmitted infections were gradually contained, more people returning from overseas and going into quarantine sought help," she said. "We were receiving more than 20 phone calls a day."

By April 16, the counselors had received a total of 795 phone calls, 553 of which were related to the epidemic, according to the civil affairs bureau's Beijing Social Psychological Service Center, which is responsible for managing the group of psychologists.

In recent weeks, the phone calls have fallen to a handful per day, Bai said, adding that the 150 WeChat groups set up by the center have also gone quiet.

In addition to six free hotlines designated for psychological consultations, the bureau has also provided online consultations for about 20,000 residents in WeChat groups staffed by psychologists and social workers.

"We keep a close eye on what's happening in the WeChat groups, and when people have questions or show some signs of anxiety, we attempt to learn more about their situation and listen to their concerns," said Shi Haiyan, a senior psychologist who volunteered to handle calls during the epidemic on behalf of the team.

Shi has been on duty for about four hours a day since February, focusing her attention on the hotline. She said she has been affected personally by her callers−not only by the suffering brought by COVID-19 but also by the positive outlook of patients who had recovered.

"I remember one person who called in February from Hubei province saying that his neighbor, who was quarantined with him, had committed suicide. He felt helpless," Shi said.

"That case affected me a lot, and our counseling group, as a team, stayed in contact with him until he was discharged from quarantine."

Another call, from an elderly man in Beijing, made Shi realize how deeply the worries had penetrated people's daily lives.

STIMULUS EXPECTED TO GIVE STOCKS LIFT

The mainland stock market is likely to move higher this month amid investors' expectations that the country's top legislature will unveil a massive stimulus package by the end of the month, experts said on Friday.

The market ended April's trading with a surge on Thursday, as the key Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.33 percent at 2,860.08 points, the highest level in six weeks.

The market's rise came despite pressure from the bleak first-quarter earnings results and investors' cashing-out before the five-day May Day market closure.

Mainland-listed firms, whose profits as a whole dropped by 24 percent from a year earlier due to the novel coronavirus outbreak, finished first-quarter earnings reporting on Thursday.

The market's increase against the negatives has reflected the solid upside momentum of A shares, which is expected to continue into May, said Hu Yunlong, a Beijing-based private fund manager.

Hu said he foresees growing expectations over economic stimulus as the annual session of the top legislature approaches, which will fuel the uptrend in May, with financials and sectors related to infrastructure to outperform.

China announced on Wednesday that the third plenary session of the 13th National People's Congress, the country's top legislature, will open on May 22. The session is set to unveil details of this year's stimulus package to help the economy cope with the impact of the virus.

The expansion of infrastructure investment and consumption will be the focus of the package and will help create key market outperformers in May in sectors such as 5G, chemicals, machinery and automobile, analysts said.

The session would only be a catalyst for the market rally, while the key backbone would be the recovery in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings from the trough caused by the pandemic, according to Chen Guo, chief strategist with Shenzhen-based Essence Securities.

"We believe the A-share market has hit the bottom in the short term and will be followed by an uptrend with fluctuations," Chen said, adding that an accommodative liquidity condition will also help underpin the market.

China's manufacturing sector has sustained expansion for two consecutive months as of April after a deep contraction in February.

The Shanghai index rallied by 3.99 percent in April, while overseas investment has returned. The stock connects between mainland and Hong Kong bourses saw net overseas capital inflow of 53.2 billion yuan ($7.5 billion), according to market tracker Wind Info.

The accelerated steps in capital market reforms have also helped to boost risk appetite, said Wang Yi, chief strategist with Great Wall Securities, citing the launch of market-based initial public offering reform on the innovation-focused startup board ChiNext on Monday.

In its latest reform move, China loosened the requirements for redchip firms−innovative enterprises that are based on the mainland but are incorporated overseas−to get listed on mainland bourses on Thursday.

GUANGDONG: FOREIGNERS, LOCALS TREATED EQUALLY AMID COVID-19

South China's Guangdong province, window of the country's reform and opening-up, reiterated it treats both domestic and foreign individuals equally in the fight against COVID-19.

In an open letter to both local and foreign residents in the province titled Joint Efforts to Fight Against COVID-19, the provincial government said the province takes the same prevention and control measures for all in Guangdong, regardless of nationality, race and gender, in the fight against COVID-19.

Meanwhile the provincial government has also introduced a series of special measures covering nine major industries and sectors for livelihoods to help fight against the pandemic and restore production and business in Guangdong, known as a major production base and commercial area in the country, said the letter.

"The measures that are equal to all people in Guangdong involve health and medical treatment, education, catering, transportation, tourism and scenic spots, hotels and restaurants, supermarkets and shopping centers, residential houses and housing estates, and leasing homes," said the letter.

And Zhang Xin, deputy governor of Guangdong province, said the provincial government has asked all departments, organizations, groups and individuals in Guangdong to strictly abide by relevant laws, regulations and rules in the fight against COVID-19 and treat both locals and foreigners equally.

"Foreign people's religious beliefs and customs must be respected, and foreigners will not be discriminated against when they enter local housing estates, communities, shopping centers, hospitals, restaurants or scenic spots, and enjoy local public transport facilities," said Zhang.

Zhang made his remarks while having a conference with foreign representatives in the province on April 30.

"Those who violate relevant laws, regulations and rules in the fight against COVID-19 will be punished according to the law," he said.

The provincial government has asked relevant departments, organizations and groups to open special hotlines, allowing locals and foreigners to complain and report 24 hours a day.

"Relevant departments have expanded contacts and exchanges with foreign consulate generals in Guangdong, foreign chambers of commerce and relevant organizations and groups to explain and introduce Guangdong's policies, regulations and rules in the fight against COVID-19 after the outbreak of the pandemic, and have won foreign residents' support, respect and understanding," Zhang added.

Alima Danfakha Gakou, consul of Mali in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province, thanked the Guangdong provincial government for helping foreigners in Guangdong in fighting against COVID-19.

Many other foreign consuls general attending the conference also appreciated Guangdong's great efforts made to fight against COVID-19 in the previous months.

The special measures Guangdong province has introduced to help fight against COVID-19 and restore production and commercial activities in the province are equal to both locals and foreigners, they said.

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm. - Winston Churchill